The National Council of State Boards of Nursing (NCSBN) launched the 2026 National Nursing Workforce Survey on March 25, 2026, in partnership with the National Forum of State Nursing Workforce Centers. The survey remains open through September 2026 — and the data it's collecting will shape federal and state policy decisions on nursing education, licensing, and staffing for the next decade.
The survey's interim findings, combined with federal Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA) projections released in 2026, paint a stark picture: the United States is projected to face a shortfall of approximately 109,000 full-time registered nurses by 2028. That's after three years of aggressive nursing school enrollment expansion, accelerated licensure processes following the NCLEX NGN transition, and a post-pandemic staffing normalization cycle.
What the 2026 Survey Is Measuring
The NCSBN workforce survey is conducted every two years. The 2023 survey, published in 2024, was the most comprehensive since the COVID-era disruption that redefined workforce dynamics. The 2026 edition is designed to capture the post-pandemic normalization in full — including data on:
- Intent to leave the nursing profession within five years (2023 survey showed 19% planning exit)
- Reasons for leaving: burnout, workload, pay, management quality, workplace safety
- Specialization patterns: which units are gaining and losing nurses
- Geographic distribution and rural vs. urban vacancy rates
- NCLEX passage rates and time-to-hire for new graduates
- Advanced practice nursing workforce (NP, CRNA, CNM, CNS) supply and demand gaps
The 2026 survey is being distributed through state boards of nursing to both active RNs and recently inactive nurses who hold valid licenses. Response rates have historically ranged from 12–18% of the licensed workforce; the 2026 survey has targeted additional outreach to nurses aged 25–35 who represent the profession's projected primary workforce supply through 2040.
The Shortage Numbers in Context
A projected 109,000-nurse shortfall by 2028 sounds alarming, but context matters. The 2021-2022 COVID crisis created a de facto shortage of 100,000+ nurses almost immediately — healthcare systems survived through travel nursing rates that peaked at $7,000-$10,000/week. The difference in 2028 is structural rather than acute: it's a chronic vacancy gap concentrated in specific specialties (critical care, behavioral health, neonatal) and geographies (rural Midwest and South, specific markets in the Pacific Northwest under new ratio laws).
HRSA's modeling separates two types of demand: replacement demand (replacing retirements and exits) and growth demand (new positions driven by population aging and expanded care access). The 2028 projection assumes retirement rates continue at the current pace — roughly 85,000 RNs per year reaching age 65 — and that new graduate pipelines stay at or below current output levels.
What Nurses Should Watch in the Survey Results
The NCSBN's 2026 data will be published in early 2027. Between now and then, the survey's open period through September represents a meaningful opportunity: nurses who complete the survey directly influence the data that informs state legislatures on safe-staffing bills, CMS on reimbursement structures, and nursing schools on enrollment capacity decisions.
Three findings from the 2023 survey that the 2026 edition is specifically designed to track for movement:
1. Intent-to-leave stabilization. The 2023 survey found 19% of RNs planned to leave nursing within five years. If the 2026 survey shows that number declining — which some state-level data from MNA and SEIU contract negotiations suggests is happening in unionized markets — it would indicate that retention strategies are working. If it's flat or rising, the shortage projection of 109K by 2028 looks conservative.
2. Specialty distribution shifts. The 2023 data showed critical care and behavioral health as the highest-gap specialties. The 2026 survey will capture whether the post-pandemic salary normalization in ICU/CVICU nursing has retained nurses who were considering CRNA school or travel nursing as alternatives.
3. Rural vs. urban gap. Rural nursing vacancy rates were running 22-28% in the hardest-hit markets (North Dakota, Wyoming, Alaska, rural Appalachia) in 2023. Oregon's new ratio law effective June 2024 has created secondary vacancy pressure in rural Oregon markets where facilities can't staff to the mandated levels. The 2026 data will quantify whether rural markets have worsened, improved, or differentiated by region.
The 109,000-nurse shortfall projection matters because it tells us where leverage is. If the shortage is real and structural, nurses in the most-impacted specialties and geographies have negotiating power that doesn't require changing jobs to access. The data from this survey is what administrators cite when they justify or deny staffing requests. If you're a bedside nurse being told "we don't have the staff," knowing the market-level vacancy data in your specialty is how you have that conversation with evidence.